Third parties can decide who controls the Senate.

• TX Brown

  Lean10 pollsR 46.6D 48.3

  Marginthe 6 polls that name BrownR 45.9D 47.0Brown 3.5covers the gap

• KS Graham

  Lean3 pollsR 44.5D 45.8

  Marginthe 2 polls that name GrahamR 44.3D 44.7Graham 3.5covers the gap

• MN Whiting

  Lean6 pollsR 43.2D 46.1

  Marginthe 3 polls that name WhitingR 43.4D 45.5Whiting 3.2covers the gap

• IA Laehn

  Lean10 pollsR 46.17D 46.18

  Marginthe 5 polls that name LaehnR 45.7D 46.2Laehn 2.2covers the gap

• MI Long

  Lean7 pollsR 46.2D 49.0

  Marginthe 2 polls that name LongR 44.6D 46.5Long 1.5not needed here

• OH Redpath

  Lean10 pollsR 45.1D 47.8

  Marginthe 3 polls that name RedpathR 45.7D 45.5Redpath 1.3covers the gap

• SC Whitener

  Lean2 pollsR 47.4D 44.9

  Marginthe 1 poll that names WhitenerR 45.7D 44.8Whitener 2.1covers the gap

• NH Laplante

  Lean4 pollsR 42.6D 49.4

  Marginthe 2 polls that name LaplanteR 42.3D 48.2Laplante 2.1not needed here

Plain averages of the counted polls. Lean: every counted poll. Margin: only the counted polls that name our candidate, the same polls the ring is measured in, so its two party numbers can differ from the lean's. Not needed here: the Republican is already trailing without our candidate, and our candidate's share adds to that.