The Eight Margins.
StarkFreedom supports eight candidates in eight states that will decide control of the United States Senate.
New HampshireEdmond LaplanteConstitutionSununu says he'll defend you from surveillance. He voted to expand it.See the raceTexasTed BrownLibertarianSixty Republicans voted to impeach Paxton.See the raceKansasDavid GrahamLibertarianMarshall called debt the biggest problem. He voted to raise its ceiling $5 trillion.See the raceMichiganTim LongU.S. TaxpayersRogers voted to keep the NSA collecting your phone records.See the raceOhioBill RedpathLibertarianNobody elected Husted to this seat. DeWine handed it to him.See the raceIowaThomas LaehnLibertarianHinson voted for the tax credits behind Summit's pipeline.See the raceSouth CarolinaKasie WhitenerLibertarianTwo Iran war-powers votes failed 49 to 50. Darline Graham's no decided both.See the raceMinnesotaRebecca WhitingLibertarianNearly half of Republican primary voters chose someone other than Michele Tafoya.See the race
For reporters
Every number here has a source.
Updated Oct 10, 2026, 1:51 pm ET
| Race | Ratings | Newest verified poll |
|---|---|---|
| New HampshireEdmond Laplante | Cook: Toss UpMoved from Lean D, Sep 15, 2026Inside Elections: Toss-upMoved from Tilt D, Sep 3, 2026Sabato: Leans DHeld since Mar 12, 2025; unchanged in its Sep 22, 2026 update | Sununu 44 · Pappas 49 · Laplante 3Rasmussen Reports, Oct 2 to 4, 2026 |
| TexasTed Brown | Cook: Toss UpMoved from Lean R, Aug 20, 2026Inside Elections: Tilt RMoved from Lean R, Oct 1, 2026Sabato: Toss-upMoved from Leans R, Aug 26, 2026 | Paxton 45 · Talarico 51New York Times / Siena, Sep 21 to 30, 2026 |
| KansasDavid Graham | Cook: Lean RMoved from Likely R, Sep 23, 2026Inside Elections: Likely RMoved from Solid R, Sep 3, 2026Sabato: Leans RMoved from Likely R, Sep 22, 2026 | Marshall 41 · Hamilton 46 · Graham 7GBAO, Hamilton campaign poll, Sep 30 to Oct 4, 2026 |
| MichiganTim Long | Cook: Toss UpHeld since Feb 11, 2025Inside Elections: Tilt DMoved from Toss-up, Oct 1, 2026Sabato: Leans DMoved from Toss-up, Sep 22, 2026 | Rogers 41 · El-Sayed 46 · Long 1Mitchell Research & Communications, Oct 1, 2026 |
| OhioBill Redpath | Cook: Toss UpMoved from Lean R, Apr 13, 2026Inside Elections: Toss-upMoved from Tilt R, Sep 3, 2026Sabato: Toss-upMoved from Leans R, Jun 11, 2026 | Husted 44 · Brown 43 · Redpath 1co/efficient, Oct 5 to 6, 2026 |
| IowaThomas Laehn | Cook: Toss UpMoved from Lean R, Aug 20, 2026Inside Elections: Tilt RMoved from Lean R, Aug 6, 2026Sabato: Toss-upMoved from Leans R, Sep 22, 2026 | Hinson 47 · Turek 45 · Laehn 2Emerson College, Oct 5 to 6, 2026 |
| South CarolinaKasie Whitener | Cook: Likely RRead Oct 8, 2026Inside Elections: Likely RRead Oct 8, 2026 | Graham 45.7 · Andrews 44.8 · Whitener 2.1InsiderAdvantage, Sep 28 to 29, 2026 |
| MinnesotaRebecca Whiting | Cook: Likely DRead Oct 10, 2026Inside Elections: Lean DRead Oct 10, 2026Sabato: Likely DRead Oct 10, 2026 | Tafoya 45 · Flanagan 48Rasmussen Reports, Oct 5 to 7, 2026 |
Cook Political Report; Inside Elections; Sabato's Crystal Ball; the pollsters named, each poll checked against a second source.
We fund the margin. It costs the GOP the Senate.
Ratings, polls and markets are third-party figures, attributed and dated. StarkFreedom states no odds of its own.